The AI Race Is Rigged -- Here’s Why with Manu Kumar

The AI boom isn’t a level playing field—and most startups are running a race they’re set up to lose. In this episode, Dr. Manu Kumar explains why the real winners of this AI wave are the incumbents who already control distribution and customers, not the scrappy upstarts.

Dr. Manu Kumar is the founder of K9 Ventures and an early investor in companies like Lyft, Twilio, Lucidchart, Carta, Auth0, and Everlaw, with over 15 years backing more than 50 early-stage startups. Drawing from his experience as a founder, PhD in Human-Computer Interaction, and solo GP, Manu breaks down why this AI cycle is structurally different from past tech shifts—and what that means for founders, operators, and VCs.

In this conversation, Manu argues that the biggest moat in AI today isn’t the model, the data, or the tech—it’s distribution. Companies like Google and Microsoft already have massive customer bases and control the channels where AI products are discovered and adopted, which tilts the game heavily in their favor. He explains how this changes the calculus for AI startups, what kinds of products still have a shot, and why some founders should stop pretending they’re competing on a fair field.

You’ll also hear Manu’s philosophy on founder success: why he optimizes for grit, “insane perseverance in the face of complete resistance,” and technical founders who can actually build the product themselves. He shares how he evaluates early-stage teams at the two-person-and-an-idea stage, why gut instinct still matters when there’s no data, and how to think about market size when the category doesn’t really exist yet.

If you’re building in AI, investing in AI, or just trying to understand where this wave is really headed, this episode gives a brutally honest look at who has the power—and what founders can still do about it.